La Niña just part of SoCal water picture
By: Mark Muckenfuss

Forecasters are worried about another dry winter for Southern California.

Despite rain and snowfall in December, analysts say it appears that a La Niña condition is forming in the Pacific Ocean. If that is the case, it would typically push the jet stream farther north, leaving the parched Southland high and dry for the third winter in a row.

"La Niña is what I call the diva of drought," said Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena.

La Niña occurs when there is a significant cooling of the equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean, something Patzert said is showing up on satellite data gathered by JPL.

"When the Pacific speaks, California better listen," he said.

Officials at the National Climatic Data Center are more conservative. They say there is a trend toward La Niña conditions but it is still too early to call. It takes a series of five consecutive below-normal three-month averages to establish a La Niña. Karsten Shein, a climatologist with the data center, said we won't know for sure for a few months yet.

Ocean temperatures, Shein said, are "showing continued cooling but (are) still in neutral conditions."

A La Niña condition doesn't guarantee a dry year.

"(It's) just part of the equation," Shein said. Other factors can influence storms approaching the western United States, he said, "There are a lot of patterns that get considered."

With two back-to-back dry winters, local water officials have already been discussing conservation measures. But officials in the Inland Empire don't seem ready to ramp up their plans based on the probable occurrence of a La Niña.

Peter Odencrans is spokesman for Western Municipal Water District, which provides supplemental water for Corona, Norco, Riverside, Temecula and Lake Elsinore.

"We'd have to see it to believe it," Odencrans said.

He is concerned about the Sierra snowpack. A state Department of Water Resources survey showed the snowpack is 76 percent of normal.

Of more concern, Odencrans said, is a court-ordered reduction on water delivered from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Reductions were made to protect the endangered delta smelt and a decision is expected shortly on further reductions.

"If we were reduced more than what we are now, it's possible we could ramp up (water restrictions)," Odencrans said.